By David Emory Stooksbury
State
Climatologist
University of Georgia
The long-term drought that has plagued Georgia since May 1998 is
all but over.
Climatologists and hydrologists use five indicators of drought:
rainfall, soil moisture, stream flows, lake levels and
groundwater level. As Georgians end the year, four of the five
indicators of drought are near normal to above normal. Only
groundwater levels are slow to recover.
The continuation of the El Nino weather pattern indicates that
near-normal to above-normal rainfall should continue across most
of the state.
Bountiful rain
Georgia has received bountiful rain since the middle of
September. The September rains ended the short-term or
agricultural drought.
For many row-crop farmers, the timing of the rain made a bad crop
year worse. The rains were too late to help most crops but
delayed harvesting of cotton and peanuts. They also lowered the
quality of cotton and pecans.
The September rains did revive pastures and allowed cattle and
dairy producers to save hay until the winter.
The plentiful rains that started in September have continued
through late December. Many locations were near 10 inches below
normal in yearly rainfall in early September. The yearly rainfall
deficits have been almost eliminated.
Totals nearly normal
With rainfall expected on Dec. 31, all major weather stations
across Georgia will end the year with more than 90 percent of
normal yearly rainfall. As of Dec. 30, Athens is 95.6 percent of
normal, Atlanta 94.7 percent, Augusta 90.8 percent, Columbus 89.4
percent, Macon 89.6 percent and Savannah 95.0 percent.
The wet fall and early winter mean that soils across the state
are wet. The National Climate Prediction Center’s soil moisture
model shows that soil moisture across Georgia has an 80- to
90-percentile ranking. At the 80th percentile, soil moisture
would be less in eight out of 10 years. At the 90th percentile,
soil moisture would be less in nine of 10 years.
Stream gauge records from the United States Geological Survey
show normal to much above-normal stream flows across the entire
state. The lowest stream flows are in northeast Georgia, where
flows are normal for this time of the year.
Lake levels
Lake levels statewide have shown dramatic rises during December.
In west Georgia, since Dec. 1, Lake Lanier has risen more than 4
feet and is now above normal level for late December. The other
major lakes in west Georgia — West Point, Walter F. George,
Seminole, Allatoona and Carters — are also above normal for late
December.
In east Georgia, Lake Hartwell remains 2 feet below normal, while
Lakes Russell and Clarks Hill are slightly above normal for late
December.
The only drought indicator that remains below normal is
groundwater level. USGS monitoring wells in south Georgia are
showing improving groundwater levels, but levels remain low.
Unlike last winter, good recharge of the groundwater is being
recorded. With a continuation of good rainfall, groundwater
levels should continue to recover through the spring.
More wet weather
With the continuation of an El Nino weather pattern through
spring, Georgians can expect a continuation of recent weather
patterns. Historically, an El Nino brings above-normal winter and
spring rains across south Georgia and near-normal rains across
most of north Georgia. Historically, the extreme northwest corner
of the state has slightly below-normal winter and spring rainfall
during an El Nino event.
While the long-term drought is all but over, Georgians’
conservation of the state’s water is still needed. In the past 40
years, Georgia’s population has more than doubled to more than 8
million. The state’s growth has come with no increase in the
water supply.
Without an increase in the supply, water conservation is now a
fact of life in Georgia. This growth is similar to that in
Ireland in the 40 years before the great potato famine.
