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Pecan prices should remain stable at |
The U.S. supply of pecans is expected to be large this year
despite an expected downturn in imports. Though prices may vary,
they shouldn’t be much higher or lower for the holidays, says a
University of Georgia expert.
Prices will average around $6 a pound this year, said Wojciech
Florkowski, an economist with the UGA College of Agricultural and
Environmental Sciences.
“Anything at $5 would be a good buy,” he said. “But it all
depends on the grade you want.”
Most retail stores sell mixed bags of halves and large pieces
between $5.50 and $6 per pound.
“The prices at wholesale are running between $3 and $3.50 per
pound, depending on the grade,” Florkowski said. “These are very
strong prices.”
Depending on supply and demand, prices could be lower locally in
Georgia.
But because of the demand for specialty uses of pecans,
Florkowski doesn’t expect the prices of other nuts, such as
almonds and walnuts, to affect pecan prices.
Will the current downturn in the economy influence pecan
prices?
He doubts it.
“It shouldn’t affect pecan sales,” he said. “Pecans are such a
specialty item and purchased in such quantities that the
household budget will permit these items.”
But he did say that consumers “are rather unpredictable right
now.”
The supply
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Pecan producers are shaking down a large crop for |
Normally, the total supply for the U.S. market is around 400
million pounds. This year’s total should be at this level, more
or less, Florkowski said. This will keep retail prices
stable.
The U.S. supply depends on three factors: the current crop,
carry-over inventory in storage and imports from Mexico, he
said.
Georgia’s 2001 pecan production is forecast at 105 million
pounds, up 31 percent from last year, according to the Georgia
Agricultural Statistics Service.
Because of their makeup, pecan trees generally have large yields
every other year. This expected alternate-bearing cycle combined
this season with good growing conditions to yield a larger crop
size.
The expected U.S. 2001 pecan production is 355 million pounds, up
69 percent from last year but 13 percent below the record high
crop in 1999.
Inventory levels are down from last year, he said. Part of this
year’s large crop will go to rebuild the inventory, but a large
volume will be sent to market.
However, import levels from Mexico will be down this year. Since
the 1990s, pecans from Mexico have been on the rise. They have
contributed as much as 10 percent to the total U.S. supply.
But this year, a stronger Mexican economy will increase demand
for the crop in Mexico, he said. That will cut into the Mexican
supply of pecans to the United States.
