Economics and Money Resources

1. Food and commodity prices are expected to return to prepandemic levels.
2. Coupled with increasing costs, the nation’s farm income is expected to decline by 17% between 2022 and 2023.
3. Georgia’s 2023 net farm income is likely to return to the 10-year average of about $3 billion.
4. Potential upsides for Georgia are the possibility of higher demand for poultry, cotton, and peanuts from domestic and overseas markets.
5. Risks to this forecast are higher input costs, geopolitical risks, cheaper imports of some commodities, and a global economic slowdown.

1. Farm input expenses continued to increase in 2023; when adjusted for inflation, they remained below 2014’s record highs.
2. Notable changes in 2023 included reductions in farm interest and fertilizer expenses.
3. Total production expenses are forecast to decline slightly with the largest changes in interest, fertilizer, and pesticide categories.

Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses. Forecast by Jeffrey M. Humphreys, UGA, Director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth. The overall U.S. outlook projections include: 1. The 2024 economic forecast for Georgia calls for an economic slowdown but not a recession. We estimate the probability of recession at 33% for Georgia compared to just under 50% for the United States. 2. Georgia’s lower risk of recession reflects recent economic development success and stronger demographics. 3. The resilient labor market and the strong financial position of households are two reasons why we expect continued economic expansion. 4. Inflation will continue to ease but will not fall to levels experienced before the pandemic. 5. The main downside risks to growth are missteps by the Federal Reserve, a financial crisis, and an energy-price shock. Each of these risks alone could trigger a recession.