Agricultural Development

Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses.

Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses. Forecast by Jeffrey M. Humphreys, UGA, Director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth.

1. Food price growth in 2025 is projected to align with inflation at around 2.5%, although prices for food consumed away from home are expected to remain higher than those for food consumed at home. Commodity prices are forecast to trend downward in the near term, with stability anticipated in the medium term.
2. According to the most recent USDA farm income forecast, declining crop prices are expected to outweigh revenue gains from animal products, combined with slightly reduced input costs, leading to lower national net farm income in 2024.
3. USDA projections indicate a decline in net farm income of 4.1% in nominal terms and 6.3% in inflation-adjusted terms nationally in 2024. However, these projections will not apply to Georgia because of the significant damages caused by Hurricane Helene, which resulted in lost output and infrastructure.
4. Looking forward to 2025 and beyond, numerous geopolitical risks combined with various proposed policies—including tariffs and retaliation, immigration controls, tax policies, energy strategies, and inflation-targeted monetary policies—contribute to ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. and Georgia agricultural economic outcomes.

1. U.S. farm production expenditures declined by a moderate 4.1% in 2024 compared to 2023, but remained elevated relative to recent decades, totaling $453.9 billion.
2. Forecasted U.S. farm production expenses for 2024 show increases in labor, livestock/poultry purchases, and property taxes/fees, along with reductions in feed purchases, fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel/oil.
3. In 2025, we expect relatively stable total production costs as reductions in categories such as interest on operating capital and fertilizer are expected to be mostly offset by increases in categories such as labor and custom operations.

Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses.

Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses. Forecast by Jeffrey M. Humphreys, UGA, Director of the Selig Center for Economic Growth. The overall U.S. outlook projections include: 1. The 2024 economic forecast for Georgia calls for an economic slowdown but not a recession. We estimate the probability of recession at 33% for Georgia compared to just under 50% for the United States. 2. Georgia’s lower risk of recession reflects recent economic development success and stronger demographics. 3. The resilient labor market and the strong financial position of households are two reasons why we expect continued economic expansion. 4. Inflation will continue to ease but will not fall to levels experienced before the pandemic. 5. The main downside risks to growth are missteps by the Federal Reserve, a financial crisis, and an energy-price shock. Each of these risks alone could trigger a recession.

1. Food and commodity prices are expected to return to prepandemic levels.
2. Coupled with increasing costs, the nation’s farm income is expected to decline by 17% between 2022 and 2023.
3. Georgia’s 2023 net farm income is likely to return to the 10-year average of about $3 billion.
4. Potential upsides for Georgia are the possibility of higher demand for poultry, cotton, and peanuts from domestic and overseas markets.
5. Risks to this forecast are higher input costs, geopolitical risks, cheaper imports of some commodities, and a global economic slowdown.

1. Farm input expenses continued to increase in 2023; when adjusted for inflation, they remained below 2014’s record highs.
2. Notable changes in 2023 included reductions in farm interest and fertilizer expenses.
3. Total production expenses are forecast to decline slightly with the largest changes in interest, fertilizer, and pesticide categories.