Each year, UGA’s agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview to help various sectors of the agriculture industry navigate the year ahead. As Georgia’s land-grant university, the University of Georgia conducts cutting-edge research on critical and emerging issues that are important to the agriculture industry. From this research, UGA provides the best information and education available to producers and constituents to equip them with knowledge and decision-making tools for their businesses.
Georgia Economic Outlook
- The 2026 forecast calls for the second straight year of slow economic growth.
- The trade war and restrictive immigration policies are the main problems.
- The risk of recession is high.
- The Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy.
- Georgia will roughly match the United States’ pace of GDP and job growth.
Georgia Agriculture Economic Outlook
- The U.S. economy is expected to grow by roughly 2% in 2026, consistent with growth rates in the second half of 2025. Inflation rates are likely to continue to fall toward the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.
- The latest USDA projections indicate increased net cash farm income of $180.7 billion and net farm income of $179.8 billion in 2025. Rising receipts from animal products offset losses in crop receipts.
- Production expenses, both nominal and inflation-adjusted, are expected to have increased in 2025. Increased costs are largely a result of higher prices for feed, livestock/poultry inputs, and labor, while costs for chemical inputs and fuel fell slightly.
- Stagnant prices and increasing costs suggest a negative outlook for most of Georgia’s major crops in 2026. The outlook for animals and animal products is generally positive.
- Changes to farm programs in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and ad-hoc disaster assistance programs, will be important in keeping farmers afloat; many commodities will continue to experience a cost-price squeeze in 2026. In terms of agricultural policy moving forward, trade actions and immigration concerns will continue to lead to uncertainty in the economic outlook for U.S. and Georgia agriculture.
Inputs and Production Expenditures
- Total U.S. farm production expenditures remained mostly stable from 2024 to 2025, increasing less than 1% to $467.4 billion.
- Forecasted U.S farm production expenditure sectors portray increases in livestock/poultry purchases, labor, and interest, and year-over-year reductions in pesticide and feed categories.
- Interest, H-2A labor rates, and fuel, lube, and electricity farm expense categories are forecast to move lower as fertilizer expenditures increase in 2026.
Cotton
- Cotton remains financially strained: High input costs, elevated interest rates, and weak prices have left U.S. cotton producers with ongoing negative profit margins, continuing a long-term trend of economic losses.
- Global competition and oversupply dampen prices: Rising Brazilian production, China’s diversification away from U.S. cotton, and global stocks exceeding demand have intensified market competition and kept cotton prices suppressed.
- 2026 outlook remains challenging: With cotton futures in the mid-60s, limited demand recovery, and production costs still high, growers must carefully manage expenses and adopt strong marketing strategies to reduce financial risk.
Peanuts
- High peanut acreage is expected to continue into 2026, keeping overall U.S. and Georgia production elevated.
- Oversupply will keep prices under pressure, with Georgia forward contracts likely in the range of $425–$500/ton.
- Exports and profitability remain challenged, underscoring the need for new markets and stronger demand to support grower returns.
Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat
- Large ending stocks following abundant production in 2025 mean that prices will likely remain low during 2026.
- Tight margins are expected to continue in 2026 as projected prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat are near or below the breakeven cost of production.
- In Georgia, growers are likely to plant more corn acres, while soybean and wheat plantings will be comparable to last year.
Beef
- Tight supplies will support prices at very high levels in 2026.
- Cattle inventories appear to be stabilizing this year, but a major expansion appears to be further in the future.
- Consumer demand weakness, either from softening ability or willingness to pay for high-priced beef, is a significant risk to the outlook.
Dairy
- The 2026 dairy outlook faces headwinds on increasing production that appears to be outpacing demand.
- Potential improvements to the supply and demand balance may occur later in the year.
- Opportunities from new local processing could support Georgia producers this year.
Poultry (Broilers)
- The year ahead is likely to become one of stable, incremental growth.
- After a strong start to 2025, significant production growth weighed on prices in the latter half of the year.
- In 2026, supply and demand will likely find a better balance with indications of relatively stable prices.
Fruits and Tree Nuts
- Blueberries will continue to lead the Georgia fruits and tree nuts industry in 2026 and subsequent years, unless some drastic, unexpected calamity occurs.
- It would be a challenge for the Georgia pecan industry to regain its leadership position in the fruits and nuts category, but the industry will remain strong in 2026.
- Overall, consumer and grower price indexes will remain strong in 2026.
Vegetables and Pulses
- Total vegetable harvested area will continue to decrease in 2026, but the value will continue to grow because of the increase in yields caused by good agricultural practices, research, and extension support to growers.
- Vegetable prices will continue to be noisy, but the consumer price index will remain strong in 2026.
- Although per capita consumption of vegetables took a hit, probably the lowest in the past decade, consumption is expected to bounce back in 2026.
Green Industry
- 2025 was a good year for many green industry firms as demand remained strong for many parts of the state.
- There are many unknowns going into 2026 that will impact green industry sales: Mixed signals within the economy, increased input costs, and the varying strength of the housing market in Georgia will play a major role.
- Green industry demand is expected to slow, with prices expected to drop to offset the decreased demand, which will result in decreased sales in 2026 compared to 2025.
Timber Situation and Outlook
- In South Georgia, recent pine sawtimber and pine chip-n-saw prices increased compared to a year ago, while pulpwood prices declined for both pine and hardwood. In North Georgia, stumpage prices for timber products declined compared to a year earlier.
- Demand-side factors that are expected to shape Georgia’s timber markets in 2026 include a weakened housing market, reduced lumber mill utilization rates, mill closures and conversions, tariffs on imports, labor shortages, and overall economic growth.
- On the supply side, factors include tighter sawtimber inventory in areas impacted by Hurricane Helene, increased timber availability and greater supplies from mill closures in adjacent areas, and ongoing logging capacity constraints.
- Overall, sawtimber prices in 2026 are expected to remain stable across most of Georgia, although some areas of South Georgia may experience modest sawtimber price increases.
Georgia Agritourism, Hospitality, and Travel
- Agritourism continues to grow across Georgia, providing economic and cultural benefits to rural communities.
- In 2024, visitor spending reached $36.8 billion, a 3.8% increase that signals a steady recovery.
- Rural lodging grew by 1.1% in 2024, while urban demand softened by 0.7%, reflecting shifting traveler preferences.
- Coastal Georgia led the state with occupancy above 63% and average daily rates exceeding $155, while South Georgia lagged.
- Modest growth is expected in 2026, with the FIFA World Cup boosting travel and rural stays remaining strong.
Georgia Agritourism Outlook
- Agritourism represents a growing opportunity for Georgia’s agricultural sector, combining farm operations with tourism experiences to diversify income streams and strengthen rural economies.
- Operators are optimistic about the future, with 75% expecting increased visitation and profitability over the next 5 years.
- Visitors prioritize facility cleanliness, safety, restrooms, and knowledgeable and friendly staff when deciding to participate in agritourism activities.
- For agritourism operators, the primary barriers limiting growth are access to financial capital, regulatory uncertainty, and inadequate infrastructure.
- University of Georgia Cooperative Extension can enhance Georgia’s agritourism sector by supporting operators in financial planning, marketing, technical training, liability protection, and navigating relevant policies.
- The 2026 FIFA World Cup in Atlanta presents a strategic opportunity to showcase Georgia’s agricultural heritage to national and global audiences. By collaborating with destination marketing organizations, universities, UGA Extension, and local communities, operators can create memorable visitor experiences that will provide significant growth opportunities for the Georgia agritourism sector.
Direct-to-Consumer Sales
- Freshness, safety, and sustainability are the most powerful perceived advantages of locally grown products.
- Younger buyers respond strongly to environmental and ethical messaging, while older buyers remain focused on more functional attributes, such as freshness and reliability.
- Marketing messages should emphasize freshness, sustainability, local economic impact, and community connection to leverage positive perceptions of farmers markets.
- Demographics such as age and income influence the frequency of purchase and willingness to pay for local food products at farmers markets.
- Tailored communication and engagement strategies can help move more consumers from “occasional” to “regular” market visitors.
- Major trends that will influence direct-to-consumer (DTC or D2C) sales in Georgia in 2026 include hyperlocal and regenerative sourcing, smart labeling or multi-labeling, the functional benefits of fresh produce, digital engagement using personalized marketing and artificial intelligence, engaging younger generations, and waste-reduction education.
