Takeaways
- The year ahead is likely to become one of stable, incremental growth.
- After a strong start to 2025, significant production growth weighed on prices in the latter half.
- In 2026, supply and demand will likely find a better balance with indications of relatively stable prices.
Overall, the 2026 outlook appears to be moderately positive for the Georgia broiler industry. After a significant market correction in the second half of 2025, supply and demand fundamentals in the year ahead point to steady prices for the year. Risks appear limited and tied to disease risks and export uncertainty.
2025 in Review
Chicken production in 2025 is estimated to have increased by more than 2% compared to 2024 (Figure 1). Weekly slaughter data suggests production may be up more than 3%. This production increase was relatively consistent across the year, with a slight uptick in the second half. Higher production outweighed the domestic and export demand as chicken in cold storage rose compared to last year (starting in February).
Note. Data measures federally inspected, ready-to-cook weight of chicken, reported by month in millions of pounds. Data Source: USDA National Agriculture Statistics Services; compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
Domestic demand was steady in 2025. Amid surging beef prices and stable-to-higher pork prices, consumers relied on affordable chicken. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that domestic disappearance was over 103 lb per person, a 2-lb increase over 2024. This is an increase of around 2% per person compared to 2024.
Exports
Exports lagged expectations again in 2025. Projections from the USDA in December 2024 pegged exports at just under 6.8 billion lb. Estimates from the USDA in December 2025 put U.S. broiler exports at less than 6.65 billion lb. This is a drop of more than 2% compared to initial forecasts. Year-over-year, this would be a drop of less than 1%.
While important, exports represent a minority of use, between 10% to 15%. However, these 2025 estimates would mark the 6th straight year of year-over-year export declines and the lowest export volume since 2015.
Prices
Larger production and building inventories eventually caught up with chicken prices in the second half of the year. Wholesale chicken breast prices were up year over year, with significant growth through June 2025. However, these prices plunged in July and again in late summer and early fall, in line with seasonal patterns. That latter drop pushed prices below 2024 levels.
Wholesale chicken breast, leg, wing, and whole-bird prices all ended the year below 2024 levels. Retail prices remain elevated year over year, but have come down from the highs reached in the summer.
2026 Outlook
The USDA projects 2026 broiler production to be up around 450 million lb (up 1%). Exports are projected to increase by about 1%, while domestic consumption is estimated to rise by about 0.9%. Per capita disappearance is projected to increase by less than 0.5 lb (less than 0.4% per person).
Recent data on chick placements and eggs set support this relatively flat projection at least for the first quarter of 2026. Additional data on hatchery flocks and productivity also support this idea. While layer productivity remains stable to improving, layer inventories continue to decline year over year. Average monthly layer inventories were down around 2% in 2025. Additionally, broiler chicks intended for hatchery supply stocks were roughly flat (up less than 1%) through August 2025.
This relatively static supply-and-demand forecast leads to a steady price outlook for 2026, with wholesale broiler prices expected to remain relatively flat compared to 2025. Prices will likely be under pressure through the first half of 2026 as cold storage inventories are worked through. Developments in the latter half of 2026 will depend on potential supply growth and any demand shifts.
On the demand side, domestic risks appear relatively small. Chicken has an advantageous price position compared to other protein options. Exports continue to face headwinds, however. Small increases in domestic chicken production in export markets and strong competition from Brazil will again put U.S. exports under pressure in 2026.
Avian Influenza
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) will also play a role in 2026—the question is how large a part it will take. In early 2025, HPAI decimated egg production, pushing egg prices to historically high levels. In contrast, broiler production remained relatively less affected by HPAI. However, Georgia reported its first-ever cases in commercial poultry operations last year. HPAI will again be important to watch, especially in the first half of 2026.
Poultry Grower Contracts Rule Changes
Lastly, a final rule that places restrictions on the structure of poultry grower contracts will go into effect in July 2026. These rules prohibit reductions in pay tied to a grower’s relative performance (i.e., tournament pay) while still allowing bonuses, require additional documentation to ensure that relative performance comparisons are done fairly, and create a disclosure obligation regarding capital investments that a grower is required to make. These changes may impact the profitability of both growers and integrators, but by how much remains to be seen.
