2026 Beef Outlook

Overall, 2026 appears likely to be another strong year for the beef cattle sector in Georgia. Market fundamentals support high prices, but price increases may moderate. Risks mostly emerge from demand uncertainty. Beef producers may look beyond increasing their herd size—if that is not an option—to increase revenue in other ways.

2025 in Review

2025 proved to be another strong year for beef cattle markets. While the first half of the year was relatively smooth, the second half of 2025 proved to be more volatile. This volatility played out mostly in futures markets, but cash markets also saw some impact.

Strong consumer demand pulled markets higher again in 2025. Retail prices continued to climb to new records, with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that beef prices were up over 15% year-over-year in November. Despite tight supplies, U.S. per-capita beef consumption fell by less than 0.5 lb per person.

Wholesale beef value was also up again in 2025 (Figure 1). Choice cutout values at the wholesale level were up year-over-year every week in 2025 compared to 2024. These wholesale values were up around 15% on average, and as much as 33% higher. Wholesale cutout values peaked at over $400/cwt in late August and early September. This is slightly later than normal but generally in line with seasonal highs over the summer.

If consumers pulled prices up with strong beef demand, tight cattle and beef supplies were pushing prices higher, too. At the start of the year, U.S. cattle inventory was lower again, but the pace of decline slowed tremendously. While the beef cow herd dropped by over 3% between 2023 and 2024, it only dropped by 0.5% from 2024 to 2025. Total cattle inventory was down by around 0.6%. Additional tightness emerged from the discovery of New World screwworm in Mexico, which eliminated almost all feeder cattle imports from Mexico starting in mid-May.

While carcass weights again moved higher this year (up 3% each week on average), that was not able to compensate for fewer head slaughtered (down over 6% on average each week). While all categories of cattle slaughter were lower, the largest declines were in beef cows (17% decline), bulls (9%), and heifers (6%).

The combination of robust demand and tighter supplies pushed cattle prices higher throughout the supply chain in 2025. Five-market fed steer prices climbed to just under $245/cwt in late summer. In the Southern plains, 700–800-lb feeder steers peaked out at over $390/cwt during this same time. The fall brought slumping cash prices because of pressure from typical seasonal market trends and significant futures-market volatility. Lighter-weight cattle were more robust to these factors, however.

In Georgia, 700–800-lb feeder steers started the year around $250/cwt, rose slowly through the spring, rocketed over the summer, and peaked at around $330–$335/cwt in late summer and early fall. Prices slid lower through the remainder of the year, closing the year around $310/cwt. Lighter-weight calf prices experienced similar moves but were more resilient to the fall-season slide. Meanwhile, 500–600-lb steer calves started the year around $300/cwt, peaked around $400/cwt, and closed the year at around $400/cwt.

2026 Outlook

In 2026, the beef cattle sector will likely face similar fundamental forces as in 2025. Demand continues to be robust for beef despite higher prices. However, beef will continue to be the most expensive option in the meat case by a fair amount. This will create more pressure for consumers to look for alternatives, especially if prices for cheaper beef options, such as ground beef, remain elevated or become even more expensive.

In cattle markets, the supply situation will take years to change. Therefore, cattle prices will likely remain high—if consumers stick with beef. However, cattle prices may not increase as much in 2026 as they have in recent years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 5% increase in fed-steer prices between 2025 and 2026 compared to the current estimate of a 20% increase between 2024 and 2025.

The signs of a rebuild are mounting. Beef cow slaughter was low enough to suggest producers were retaining cows in a way that would mostly stop liquidation. The share of cattle on feed that are heifers has fallen year-over-year for several quarters, and heifer slaughter is down 6% compared to steer slaughter declines of less than 5%. These indicate that producers are retaining more heifers to rebuild or expand their herds.

However, the impact of this rebuild will emerge incrementally and slowly. Heifer retention decisions in 2025 will not increase beef supplies for another 2 years. Additionally, prior to this increase in prices, margins were significantly lower or negative for several years. Producers are likely to be more cautious in expanding. Moreover, input costs have risen substantially along with prices. Interest rates, in particular, play a significant role in this expansion decision. Foregoing revenue today by retaining a heifer or cull means that, implicitly or explicitly, producers will be paying interest to retain them. Higher interest rates make the option to retain stock more expensive in the short run.

In Georgia, producers will likely see higher prices again and strong margins. Retention decisions today may reduce revenue from otherwise very high levels, but higher prices will at least partially offset that lost revenue.

Producers that are constrained and cannot expand may seek to make investments to improve their operations in other ways. These could take the form of infrastructure purchases, herd genetic improvements, land renovation, or other practices (e.g., direct-to-consumer beef marketing). Given the sizable margins expected in 2026 and those of the past couple of years, producers may be well-positioned to make those investments prudently.